Don't buy lottery tickets
- High value
- Evidence A
- Saves money
- Free
- Takes minutes
- No willpower
In plain words
By regulation, the share of sales that lotto and numbers games must pay out as prizes is at least 50%, and for Double Color Ball (双色球) it is 51%. That means for every 1 CNY you put in, you get back 0.51 CNY on average over the long run, a steady loss of 49%. In 2024, 623,486,000,000 (6234.86亿) CNY of lottery tickets were sold nationwide, and 161,031,000,000 (1610.31亿) CNY of that went straight into the public welfare fund (公益金), which is not part of the prizes.
- Cost
-
Free. Not buying is the saving.
- What you get
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The Ministry of Finance (财政部) sets the minimum share of sales that must go to prizes: 50% for lotto and numbers games, 65% for instant tickets and 73% for sports and betting games. Double Color Ball pays out 51% of sales as prizes, so out of every 100 CNY sold only 51 CNY goes to prizes. For you, that means each 1 CNY put in returns 0.51 CNY on average over the long run, a loss of 49%. In 2024, 623,486,000,000 (6234.86亿) CNY of lottery tickets were sold nationwide, and 161,031,000,000 (1610.31亿) CNY of that went to the public welfare fund and did not go back to the people who bought tickets (China, 2024)
- Notes
-
Over the long run you are bound to lose. The system is set up that way, and it has nothing to do with luck. If you do buy, treat it only as entertainment spending of 2 CNY a time, not as managing your money.
- Evidence grade
- A : Specific numbers from meta-analyses, large cohorts or randomized trials; for law and policy, the statute or official text.
- Sources
-
- 财政部 (2015). 关于规范和加强彩票资金构成比例管理的通知(财综〔2015〕94 号). http://m.mof.gov.cn/czxw/201511/t20151113_1560814.htm
- 财政部 (2025). 财政部公告 2025 年第 8 号(2024 年彩票公益金筹集分配情况). http://zhs.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/202508/t20250828_3970977.htm
- 中国福利彩票双色球游戏规则(第十四条). https://mzj.nc.gov.cn/ncsmzj/flcp/202111/5dccc1a5da89434e94a62f8ea0e5887e.shtml
Translated from the Chinese original. Original book, section 5, tip 5. This section is about money and spending. It is general information, not financial or investment advice. Content may be out of date and rules differ by place. When you actually deal with an agency, a doctor or a court, follow what local officials, doctors and lawyers tell you. Disclaimer