When choosing a skill, give priority to work that needs your hands and on-the-spot judgment; it is the hardest to automate away
- Top value
- Evidence B
- Saves money
- Disputed
- Free
- Takes minutes
- No willpower
In plain words
By one U.S. estimate, about 47% of jobs were at high risk of being taken over by computers; later estimates made task by task came out much lower. There are three hurdles machines find hard to clear: manual dexterity, coming up with new things, and dealing with people. So work that is done on site, in non-standard surroundings, with judgment on the spot is harder to replace, and jobs with fixed procedures that mostly process information carry the highest risk.
- Cost
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Free. Before choosing, run the skills you are considering through this test.
- What you get
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Researchers estimated, for each of 702 U.S. occupations, how likely the work was to be handed over to computers (a computerisation probability assessment), and found about 47% of jobs in the high-risk range. What sets the risk level in the model is three hurdles machines currently cannot get past, which the authors call “engineering bottlenecks.” The first is perception and manipulation, including finger dexterity, manual dexterity and working in cramped spaces and awkward positions. The second is creative intelligence (the ability to come up with new things). The third is social intelligence (the ability to deal with people). So work in non-standard surroundings that needs skilled hands and judgment on the spot consistently has a lower probability of being replaced, and this is not a coincidence of a few occupations. Jobs with fixed procedures and mostly information processing carry the highest risk.
- Notes
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Disputed. This study was an unpublished 2013 working paper, and it scored whether a whole occupation could be taken over by machines. Later studies broke occupations down into individual tasks and arrived at a much lower share at high risk. It also does not say in which year this will happen. When using it, don't fixate on the 47% figure; look at the three places it points to where machines get stuck. That is why on-site installation, repair and nursing are harder to replace than pure paperwork. So when you “learn a skill,” prefer one that needs you on site, facing non-standard surroundings.
- Evidence grade
- B : Supported by research but without a precise number, or based on small or single studies.
- Sources
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- Frey CB, Osborne MA (2017). The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019
Mentioned in
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Translated from the Chinese original. Original book, section 23, tip 10. Content may be out of date and rules differ by place. When you actually deal with an agency, a doctor or a court, follow what local officials, doctors and lawyers tell you. Disclaimer